OK, so John Cornyn and the Republicans say they'll filibuster any move to try to seat Al Franken, right?
So here's a question: Does it change any minds if they end up filibustering everybody?
Traditionally, the presiding officer -- for swearing in day, that's usually the Vice President -- recognizes the majority and minority leaders in turn for a few welcoming remarks before beginning with the process of administering the oath.
What if at that point, Harry Reid moved to seat either Al Franken or Roland Burris or both, without prejudice to the claims against their seats, as has usually been the case in contested elections? Yes, the Republicans would surely oppose the motion, and would just as surely filibuster it as promised. But if the motion was made before anyone was sworn in, you'd technically be looking at a situation in which there were only 64 Senators "duly chosen and sworn," as the phrasing of Rule XXII (the cloture rule) goes. The partisan breakdown at that point would be 38 Democrats and 26 Republicans, with 21 Democrats (if you include Burris and Franken) waiting in the wings, along with 15 Republicans (which would include ringleaders McConnell and Cornyn).
With just 64 Senators duly chosen and sworn, the "constitutional three-fifths" required to invoke cloture would be 39. Of course, we'll have just 38 at that point, so a party-line vote -- and it almost assuredly would be a party-line vote on something this contentious -- on cloture on the motion to seat Burris and/or Franken would come up one vote short.
But Rule II appears to say that, "all questions and motions arising or made upon the presentation of such credentials shall be proceeded with until disposed of."
If that means what it sounds like (and there's always every chance that it doesn't, when you're talking about the Senate), and the motion is made before the swearing in process gets underway, then nobody gets sworn in until the deadlock on Burris and/or Franken is settled. The Senate sits at 38-26, and the minority leadership is temporarily decapitated, though they'll still have floor privileges as Senators-elect. They may find their right to address the Senate in some dispute, though, even with Cheney in the chair.
Democrats will suffer their losses, too, to be sure. Among the Democratic Senators waiting to take the oath tomorrow are Assistant Majority Leader Dick Durbin (which in combination with the Burris situation, would leave Illinois entirely unrepresented in the Senate) and Vice President-elect Joe Biden. And Democrats lose more seats total in this deal than do Republicans. But cloture remains a single vote away from our reach in straight party-line voting whether the Senate is seated at full strength (it'll take 60 votes and we'll "have" 59), or 1/3 down (when it'll take 39 and we'll "have" 38). Seating everyone but Burris and Franken leaves the Senate at 98, putting the cloture threshold at 59. But without Burris and Franken, we'll only "have" 57. Two votes short.
The big difference between being one vote short in a Senate of 64 and being two votes short in a Senate of 98 is that Republicans have no motivation to bend on Burris and/or Franken when the Senate's at 98. But although they'll have steam coming out their ears if the Senate is stalled at 64, continuing to block Burris and/or Franken with their 26 votes means continuing to block the seating of 15 of their colleagues, including two of their top leaders.
Would any GOP Senator break ranks to untangle this mess? It's hard to believe anyone would risk the scorn of Republicans everywhere, even habitual cloture jumpers like Olympia Snowe and Arlen Specter. Specter, in particular, has got to be mindful of the potential of a primary challenge from the right (though maybe it's just time for him to retire, anyway). Snowe, on the other hand, doesn't face the voters again until 2012. And if she doesn't break the deadlock, her Maine colleague Susan Collins remains among the 15 Republican Senators-elect in limbo. That's probably not enough to tempt her to jump right away, or maybe ever. But something will have to give in, if Rule II means what it says.
Might it not mean what it says? Possibly. The Senate's "two track" system that permits legislative business to go forward even when there's a filibuster pending could possibly create complications. I'm not familiar enough with how that rule is structured to know just yet what effect it could have. But if it doesn't apply for some reason -- and with highly privileged matters like the disposition of a dispute on credentials, it might not -- then you could really put the Senate over a barrel with this.
But wouldn't it also mean that the stimulus package could be blocked? Yes it could. But filibustering the stimulus package is a dicey political prospect in these economic times. And if it contains a significant package of tax cuts, as is rumored to be the case, that'll only make it harder. Not that Republicans aren't up to the task, and willing to undertake truly stupid feats of obstruction. Also, if the Republicans continued to filibuster that long, they may also eventually be filibustering the seating of a fully credentialed Franken, to boot. How long could they really hold out filibustering 15 of their own Senators, plus 20 fully credentialed Democrats, and maybe even a replacement for Burris, named by Blagojevich's successor, and the stimulus package?
And in the meantime, how would the stimulus package -- on which work would no doubt proceed in committee, if not on the floor -- end up looking?
Well, with only 64 Senators sworn, and no new organizing resolution passed, the organizing resolutions from the 110th Congress might have to remain in effect. And without the Senators-elect able to participate in the committee voting, the 15-14 Democratic advantage from the last Congress becomes a 9-7 Democratic advantage in this shorthanded Congress, with Tom Harkin (D-IA), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Tim Johnson (D-SD), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Jack Reed (D-RI), Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Lamar Alexander (R-TN) not yet sworn in, and Ted Stevens (R-AK), Pete Domenici (R-NM), Larry Craig (R-ID) and Wayne Allard (R-CO) leaving the Senate, anyway. That's +1 for us. So, fine.
On Finance, the 11-10 panel becomes an 8-7 panel instead, with Max Baucus (D-MT), Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), John Kerry (D-MA) and Pat Roberts (R-KS) unable to be sworn in, and Gordon Smith (R-OR) and John Sununu (R-NH) both defeated. Ken Salazar (D-CO) is on that panel, too, but he won't be resigning until he's confirmed as Interior Secretary, and that won't happen until the Burris/Franken deadlock is settled.
Other panels come out similarly. GOP attrition is just much more damaging than Democratic attrition, even with a filibuster blocking 30% more Dems than Republicans. Agriculture goes from 11-10 to 9-4. Armed Services from 13-12 to 9-3. Banking from 11-10 to 9-6. Budget from 12-11 to 11-5. Commerce from 12-11 to 8-6. Energy from 12-11 to 10-6. Environment from 10-9 to 8-4. Foreign Relations from 11-10 to 9-8. Health from 11-10 to 8-6. Homeland Security from 9-8 to 5-2. Indian Affairs from 8-7 to 7-4. Judiciary from 10-9 to 9-6. Rules from 10-9 to 8-3. Intelligence from 8-7 to 7-4. Aging from 11-10 to 11-5. Veterans' Affairs from 8-7 to 6-4.
Only the Small Business committee presents a problem, going from 10-9 to 5-7.
Of course, none of these panels would be able to actually pass any legislation on the floor, if Rule II serves to keep things jammed up for the duration of the Republican filibuster of the swearing in process. But it'd be interesting to ratchet up the pressure on the GOP by reporting out bills under these temporarily favorable (sometimes very favorable) committee ratios. And the longer it went on, the more bills could be considered this way, reported out, and placed on the calendar, so that when the issue was finally settled, we might have some pretty good stuff waiting for us. Not that the Republicans wouldn't then try to filibuster it all on principle. But they may do that anyway. And would the public really stand for following up their filibuster with yet more filibusters?
Maybe while we're setting the Capitol on fire, we ought to consider using the "constitutional option" to change the cloture rules, too.
So... uh... hmm.
Seems like this has to fall apart somewhere, though, doesn't it?
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