Another stimulus on the way?

Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 09:41:19 AM PDT

Speaker Pelosi sat down with Al Hunt on his Bloomberg TV program on Friday to discuss the outlook for a much-discussed and greatly anticipated economic stimulus package -- yes, another one -- on tap for the first weeks of the Obama administration.

Just what have they got in mind? Well, they've got numbers, anyway:

MR. HUNT: Give me a sense of the size and scope of that measure you anticipate passing.

REP. PELOSI: This week we had our most recent presentations from economists to tell us what - how robust such a package should be in order to have an impact on the economy, to turn the economy around, from Mark Zandi, who was the economic adviser to John McCain, across the spectrum. Economists told us that the package had to be strong enough, half a trillion, $600 billion, somewhere near that.

I'm astonished at the numbers we see being talked about for, well, everything these days. $700 billion for the Wall Street bailout. An eventual total of something like $34 billion for the auto manufacturers bailout. Now a $600 billion stimulus package. And let's not forget that while the need won't be immediate, the last Iraq supplemental was designed to carry into the new administration, but only by a few months, to give the next president a chance to find his footing before having to look for new funding for that effort.

And I don't know that this will make things any easier:

REP. PELOSI: [...] We certainly will be - are working closely with the Obama administration-to be people, and to see where their comfort level is. My measure of what will be successful is what is stimulating what is job-creating? Will there be tax cuts as part of this package?

MR. HUNT: Will there?

REP. PELOSI: I believe that there will be. And I have to have a clear hold on the cost, because we want to have enough investment to change the economic path we’re on, but not so much that we’re weighted down with a bigger deficit.

Well, you know, why not? I mean, why not? I'm increasingly convinced there's no such thing as a fundamentals-based economy anymore, so what the hell, right? All the numbers seem pretty much imaginary at this point. It almost seems like there's no point in worrying about balancing the books at this stage of the game, though that surely won't be the position of the "fiscally conservative" Blue Dog coalition, great champions of the PAYGO rules as they are.

That's where the battle lines are likely to be drawn. The great bulk of Republicans can, of course, be expected to oppose the package for one reason or another. That'll put them in the neighborhood of 170 opposed, depending on what excuses they latch on to. At least, that's the potential resistance strength among the 178 Republicans who'll be in the 111th Congress. Depending on circumstances, there should surely be some of them who find voting against a package aimed at economic recovery uncomfortable. But I don't see circumstances changing between now and then all that greatly, and there was very little discomfort in voting against the auto bailout, and not much more in voting against saving the entire global economic structure, as was alleged to have been at the heart of the Wall Street bailout. So we might expect the Republicans to play politics rather aggressively with this next vote.

The question, then, will be how the Blue Dogs break? That answer will depend on who actually constitutes the Blue Dogs in the 111th. They've lost a few members to the election, and are considering expanding their numbers this time around. They're likely to hover at something close to 20-25% of the caucus at large, giving them (in theory) the power to block the stimulus or any other piece of legislation, assuming the opposition of most Republicans.

But the Blue Dogs fractured rather badly on the last two major league economic votes. How much more likely are they to stand unified in opposition to what will be the first major economic initiative of President Obama's term? Might they not prefer to play to their populist leanings here? Or at least duck and cover for the time being, and go with the flow? They were mostly wiling to overlook the lack of offsets for the last round of Iraq funding. Maybe it'll be just as difficult for them to stick to their guns in the face of a failing economy.

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Tags: stimulus package, Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Blue Dogs (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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  •  Rhetorical question (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    JML9999, daddy4mak, cgirard
    The question, then, will be how the Blue Dogs break?

    They'll break the same way they've broken for years: bending over like the good little bitches they are and caving to every outrageous demand. When called on it they'll claim "bipartisanship".

  •  American Jobs for Americans (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Magnifico, SciVo, cgirard

    Goopers cry out for Tax cuts. Tax cuts are no guarantee of putting Americans back to work. If the broadest definition of infrastructure is used. Roads,Public Transportation,Internet(telecom),Power,Water and yes Sewage Treatment then this puts a whole lot of middle class folks back on the Tax rolls.  

    We Destroyed this Village in order to save it from the Viet Cong er um Taliban

    by JML9999 on Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 12:37:01 PM PDT

  •  my question is unrelated to the post (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    JML9999

    I just found out about this site.

    Doesn't this take away the massive audience Kagro X gets at the DKOS frontpage?

    I'm saying this as I really like Kagro X (one of my top 3 favorite bloggers at DKOS)

    •  Not Me (4+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      daddy4mak, SciVo, cgirard, AJ in Camden

      Nah, I don't get enough Kagro X at DKos. This site is a welcome bonus. And it lets Kagro X (and presumably other contributors) highlight items that might not compete successfully with other stories at DKos, with DKos' wider focus.

      Kagro X might crosspost these CM stories to his DKos diary. It will be interesting to see how the spinoff is managed, which should benefit both sites without cannibalizing either.

      I know I didn't watch any less All in the Family just because I was watching Maude. I didn't watch any less Maude just because I was watching Good Times. But I guess I had a lot more time on my hands after I was done with my homework :).

      "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

      by DocGonzo on Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 12:54:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The opposition is more interested in political (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    SciVo, cgirard

    comebacks than doing what's best for the economy. I feel like they want the economy to tank, blame the people in charge (because, you know, they weren't in full control for a good 6 years and everything), and use it as a platform for reform in Washington.

    Its sad. Reminds me McCain and his "Country First" bullshit.

    [America's] ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake. - President Barack Hussein Obama

    by PJHood on Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 12:39:45 PM PDT

  •  Which President Will Sign It? (6+ / 0-)

    MR. HUNT: But if you pass this by - I don’t know - January 15th, January 17th, that’s before President-elect Obama even takes office. How does he get input? Will there be a proposal from the president-elect’s transition team?

    REP. PELOSI: Well, for us to pass a bill in the first week in January, that’s a bill we’ve been working on for a while -

    MR. HUNT: And you’re having input from him all along. Is that right?

    REP. PELOSI: Of course, yes.

    MR. HUNT: So you’re working with him.

    REP. PELOSI: But you know what? His campaign - our priorities are the same about creating good paying jobs.

    If these bills pass by January 15, who will sign them? Would Bush sign them? Why would Democrats let Bush take the credit for it, instead of waiting 5 more days? During which everyone knows Obama will sign it, and during which practically no spending would occur anyway.

    Or does the 111th Congress just hold back the bills, at Reid's and Pelosi's discretion, letting Bush twist in the wind for a final week while we all hold our breath?

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 12:48:04 PM PDT

    •  I believe they'd have some discretion (4+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      DocGonzo, SciVo, cgirard, AJ in Camden

      There are some ministerial functions that have to be taken care of between passage by both houses and preparation of the bill for the president's signature. Those could easily be made to take a few days, as they often do.

      Say... this could get a post of its own. Good call, Doc!

    •  They have ten days and Bush is predictable. (0+ / 0-)

      Isn't that one of our complaints against Congress? Bush is so predictable, they should know when they're being had? Well, they probably do. (It's just that sometimes they see it as being in their interests to be had.) They know what Bush won't sign -- that's precisely why they haven't passed it yet!! So don't worry about it.

      Okay, so there is actually good meta. Who knew?

      by SciVo on Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 11:14:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pelosi clearly does not believe that her words .. (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    SciVo

    ... mean what they say:

    because we want to have enough investment to change the economic path we’re on, but not so much that we’re weighted down with a bigger deficit.

    If its investment, the question is not the deficit spending, but rather the positive return on investment. As long as that's there, there's no such thing as being weight down by the borrowing to fund the investment.

    And of course, in the period when we were pursing economic development, roughly 1790 to 1970, we engaged in substantial infrastructure development ... I have seen a figure cites of roughly 8% of GDP annually. And during the last four decades, we have been depreciating our economy, with infrastructure investment of perhaps 4% annually.

    That gap of 4% per year? In a $14T economy, that is over $500b. So the idea that a $300b/year stimulus package over two years is going to somehow risk being "too much" seems to be the result of a political elite that that has come to age in the era of depreciating the American economy.

    Start 2010 with Lesbian Creative Works, 100% Yuri from ALC Publishing

    by BruceMcF on Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 02:20:19 PM PDT

    •  Devil's advocate: that's not entirely true. (0+ / 0-)

      In business, it's possible that a company would be profitable if it could borrow enough at decent rates but it can't. Could be that the amount it would need to borrow is too much for the market's estimation of its ability to repay, so the cost is too much and it folds instead.

      Okay, so there is actually good meta. Who knew?

      by SciVo on Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 11:22:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Given recent Treasury auctions ... (0+ / 0-)

        ... that's an entirely hypothetical concern at this point in time.
           It would seem that there is a demand during an economic decline and financial meltdown for securities from the monopoly issuer of high powered money. But this is, of course, no surprise ... bear in mind that sovereign debt default happens when the debt is in terms of someone else's money. These Treasury bonds will be payable in dollars, so there is no default risk.

        Start 2010 with Lesbian Creative Works, 100% Yuri from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Tue Dec 16, 2008 at 04:39:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Charlie Melancon (D-LA-03) is now the spokeman (0+ / 0-)

    for the House Blue Dogs. His interests should pair up with Landrieu in the Senate. He is on Energy and Science.

    He voted for both bailout by Kagro's count. Ellen Ratner on Thom Hartman just mentioned him in a discussion on the proposed stimulus package and what it would include.

    They want their panel on long tern fiscal health. In this immediate gratification country, I wonder if we have the economic patience for how long this recession will last. Most think FDR was convinced to balance the budget in 1936 which started the second dip.

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